US-China war before 2035?

conditional

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

Make a Prediction

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 1.4%

Forecast Timeline

Yes

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

Japan

Guam

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

Japan

Guam

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CBS•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%