Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction55%

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50%

community: 55%

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DerMannOhneEigenschaften

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Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nvidia CEO hints at possibility using Samsung to make GPUs

Korea Herald•Sep 12, 2024

Jensen Huang says if 'anything were to happen' in Taiwan, Nvidia could have GPUs made somewhere else

Business Insider•Sep 12, 2024

The Chinese Chipmaker at the Heart of the U.S.-China Tech War

New York Times•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%