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Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
3%
12
9 comments
9
Ragnarรถk Series
Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
84%
52
46 comments
46
When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?
2027-09-24
9
6 comments
6
When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?
2025-04-22
9
16 comments
16
When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?
2050-06-26
27
38 comments
38
When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
2030-07-09
6
3 comments
3
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
338
4
7 comments
7
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
417
2
6 comments
6
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?
59%
12
1 comment
1
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