Question

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Houthis claim to have used HYPERSONIC ballistic missile to strike central Israel for the first time

Daily Mail•Sep 18, 2024

Iran Gives Nuclear Program Update

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%