Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction1%

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50%

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Geopolitics

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Vladimir Putin

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cuban Missile Crisis

Russia

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Vladimir Putin

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cuban Missile Crisis

Russia

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

Russia is 'fully ready' to detonate a nuclear bomb in the Arctic 'any moment', it is revealed as Putin is urged to use apocalyptic explosion to threaten the West

Daily Mail•Sep 17, 2024

Putin Ally Says Russia Already Has 'Basis to Start a Nuclear War'

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%