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Nuclear Technology & Risks
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Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
27%
28
15 comments
15
Ragnarรถk Series
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80%
29
31 comments
31
Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
12%
37
36 comments
36
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
2037-05-28
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
30%
Level 2
5%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting
21
3 comments
3
Metaculus Journal
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
1%
7
1 comment
1
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?
4.04
7
77 comments
77
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
9
9 comments
9
Metaculus Journal
Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?
Resolved :
No
23
18 comments
18
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