Question

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters141

Community Prediction74%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 74%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

65%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

SEAL Team Six training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan: report

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

Chinese TV Shows How Taiwan Invasion Would Look

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Chinese Jets Scramble Against US Military Plane

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

65%