Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?
4%
34
40 comments
40
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
32%
104
199 comments
199
The Taiwan Tinderbox
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?
80%
30
47 comments
47
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
45%
17
15 comments
15
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?
49%
17
32 comments
32
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations
13
2 comments
2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
A public prediction by Financial Times
1 comment
1
Financial Times
The 2050 Project
10
no comments
0
Erik Hoel's 2050 Predictions Series
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
15%
7
26 comments
26
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
56%
6
11 comments
11
Load more