Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters209

Community Prediction65%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

74%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

49%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

18%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

SEAL Team Six training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan: report

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

Chinese TV Shows How Taiwan Invasion Would Look

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

China Has Allied Vessel in Its Sights in Propaganda Video

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

74%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

49%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

18%