Question

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

Resolved :No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters177

Community Prediction35%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-19.4

Community Peer Score

30.9

median 35.0%mean 34.7%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Loebner Prize

Turing test

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

80%

Before 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?

34%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-07

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