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What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
1.6e17
41
43 comments
43
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2028-04-13
195
430 comments
430
AI Progress Essay Contest
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
80%
69
109 comments
109
AGI Outcomes
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.4
6
6 comments
6
AGI Outcomes
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-10-28
171
470 comments
470
AGI Outcomes
Human-Level Language Models
36
16 comments
16
A public prediction by Ray Kurzweil
3
no comments
0
Ray Kurzweil
2022 Resolutions: Predict with Public Figures
12
no comments
0
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
2028-12-07
42
70 comments
70
AGI Outcomes
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
6
31 comments
31
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