Question

Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?

Resolved :No

61 comments61

Total Forecasters544

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

67.6

Community Peer Score

20.9

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

Donetsk People's Republic

Moldova–Transnistria relations

Transnistria

Moldova

Luhansk People's Republic

Russia

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

20%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

51%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

Donetsk People's Republic

Moldova–Transnistria relations

Transnistria

Moldova

Luhansk People's Republic

Russia

Putin is threatening disaster over Ukraine's long-range missiles — but his past 'red lines' came to nothing

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

Is a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine on the cards? I am sceptical | Rajan Menon

Guardian•Sep 17, 2024

Putin Aiming for Victory in Ukraine by 2026: Defense Experts

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

20%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

51%