Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters108

Community Prediction10%

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50%

community: 10%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

61%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

Putin warns NATO will be ‘at war with Russia’ if it allows Ukraine to use Western long-range missiles against it

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Putin says NATO will be "in the war" if U.S. or allies let Ukraine fire long-range missiles at Russia

CBS•Sep 13, 2024

Biden Might Decide Today Whether To Initiate WW3 Against Russia.

Lew Rockwell•Sep 18, 2024

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

61%