Question

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Nuclear proliferation

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Nuclear proliferation

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Activity Spotted At Iran’s Former Nuclear Weapons Facilities

Daily Wire•Sep 18, 2024

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Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%