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Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
3%
2
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84%
4
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2%
6
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
11
35 comments
35
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
10%
-1
3 comments
3
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
25%
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Population Crashes: The Deadliest Events In History
8
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?
70%
9
22 comments
22
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
2037-05-28
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?
2025:
9.53k
8
10 comments
10
Forecasting Our World in Data
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