Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
11
35 comments
35
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
119
Community Prediction
1%
Make a Prediction
50%
community: 1%
Sign Up to Predict
Background Info
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Environmental science
Nuclear terrorism
Nuclear winter
Project Sapphire
Nuclear Science and Techniques
Al-Qaeda
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
Dirty bomb
Nuclear weapon
Nuclear proliferation
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
recent
? comments
Log in
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Environmental science
Nuclear terrorism
Nuclear winter
Project Sapphire
Nuclear Science and Techniques
Al-Qaeda
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
Dirty bomb
Nuclear weapon
Nuclear proliferation
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
Similar Questions
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
4%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
22%
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
4%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
22%
Show More Questions
News Match
North Korea gives rare peek at uranium enrichment site as Kim calls for "exponentially" more nuclear weapons
CBS
•
Sep 13, 2024
Kim Jong Un Wants More Nukes - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Red State
•
Sep 13, 2024
Activity Spotted At Iran’s Former Nuclear Weapons Facilities
Daily Wire
•
Sep 18, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
North Korea gives rare peek at uranium enrichment site as Kim calls for "exponentially" more nuclear weapons
CBS
•
Sep 13, 2024
Kim Jong Un Wants More Nukes - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Red State
•
Sep 13, 2024
Activity Spotted At Iran’s Former Nuclear Weapons Facilities
Daily Wire
•
Sep 18, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch