Question

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction23%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Geology

Atmospheric science

Climatology

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Climate change denial

Geopolitics

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Geology

Atmospheric science

Climatology

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Climate change denial

Geopolitics

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

What Would Really be Achieved by Russia Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine at This Point? - Global Research

Global Research•Sep 17, 2024

Ensuring the Collapse of Civilization?

CounterPunch•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%