Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?
67%
33
22 comments
22
Will a world war begin before 2151?
59%
55
38 comments
38
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
35%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
5%
33
52 comments
52
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
1%
7
7 comments
7
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
65%
19
13 comments
13
Ragnarök Series
What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?
436
17
no comments
0
Ragnarök Series—results so far
31
34 comments
34
Ragnarök Series
Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?
20%
9
5 comments
5
What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
96.1
5
2 comments
2
Load more