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What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
3
2 comments
2
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
20
Community Prediction
271
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Probability Density
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My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
2.7%
56.63
270.5
873.7
0.6%
Background Info
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Technology
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Technology
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Submit Tags Feedback
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