Question

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

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Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction61%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

The U.S. Is Playing Nuclear Chicken in Ukraine

American Conservative•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28