Question

Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?

Resolved :Yes

155 comments155

Total Forecasters286

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Is Israel About to Go to War Against Hezbollah?

PJ Media•Sep 19, 2024

Concerns Grow as Conflict Escalates Between Israel and Hezbollah

Time•Sep 20, 2024

What to know about the growing conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah

Associated Press•Sep 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%