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How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
14
4 comments
4
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
58
Community Prediction
9.93
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Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>30k
...
...
...
1.87
9.933
421.3
3.5%
Background Info
Authors:
Metaculus-Partners
Sylvain
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United Kingdom
India
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
United States
Israel
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Authors:
Metaculus-Partners
Sylvain
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United Kingdom
India
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
United States
Israel
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility
USA Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Inside Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapon factory: First-ever images of North Korea's uranium enrichment plant revealed as dictator visits military facilities and urges increase in tactical nuke production
Daily Mail
•
Sep 13, 2024
The Four Policemen: Yesterday and Today
OpEdNews
•
Sep 18, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility
USA Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Inside Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapon factory: First-ever images of North Korea's uranium enrichment plant revealed as dictator visits military facilities and urges increase in tactical nuke production
Daily Mail
•
Sep 13, 2024
The Four Policemen: Yesterday and Today
OpEdNews
•
Sep 18, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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