Question

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

45 comments45

Total Forecasters138

Community Prediction1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50k

...

50.3%

2.954

0.6%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

North Korea releases rare glimpse of Kim Jong Un touring secret nuclear weapons facility

USA Today•Sep 13, 2024

Inside Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapon factory: First-ever images of North Korea's uranium enrichment plant revealed as dictator visits military facilities and urges increase in tactical nuke production

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k