Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.5%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Non-state actor

Plutonium

Nuclear explosion

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Non-state actor

Plutonium

Nuclear explosion

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

Russia is 'fully ready' to detonate a nuclear bomb in the Arctic 'any moment', it is revealed as Putin is urged to use apocalyptic explosion to threaten the West

Daily Mail•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%