Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction28%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia

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Daily Mail•Sep 17, 2024

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Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

9.93