Question

Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?

Resolved :No

68 comments68

Total Forecasters147

Community Prediction36%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 36%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

39.7

Community Peer Score

44.8

median 36.0%mean 38.2%

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Politics

Black Lives Matter

United States

US presidential election

Donald Trump

How do we operationalize whether the US will experience a constitutional crisis/widespread unrest after 2020 elections?

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Politics

Black Lives Matter

United States

US presidential election

Donald Trump

‘Almost like people expected this’: Will latest Trump brush affect US race?

Al Jazeera•Sep 17, 2024

Violence and instability have become a feature, not a bug, of US political life

Guardian•Sep 17, 2024

The U.S. has had a long history of political violence, but experts see a new trend

NPR Online News•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How do we operationalize whether the US will experience a constitutional crisis/widespread unrest after 2020 elections?

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

10%