Question

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters255

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 6.6%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Kim Jong Un Wants More Nukes - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Red State•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%