Question

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

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Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction2.43M

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lower 25%

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upper 75%

>1B

...

423.3k

2.427M

19.21M

7.0%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

4.06B

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

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Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

4.06B