Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

36 comments36

Total Forecasters222

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

median 12.0%mean 19.3%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

The Four Policemen: Yesterday and Today

OpEdNews•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%