Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction30%

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50%

community: 30%

median 30.0%mean 34.1%

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SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

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By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

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Warning more than 39m could die from antibiotic-resistant infections

Independent•Sep 17, 2024

Nearly 40 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant superbug infections by 2050, new study estimates

CNN•Sep 17, 2024

39 Million May Die of Drug-Resistant Bugs by 2050: 'Now Is the Time to Act'

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01