Question

Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction9.01

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>11

...

8.921

9.007

9.121

0.2%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine yuxi.liu.1995

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial intelligence

What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?

10.9

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?

79.5

In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?

Comments

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine yuxi.liu.1995

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial intelligence

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What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?

10.9

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?

79.5