Question

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction8%

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50%

community: 8%

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Scheduled resolution:

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

18%

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

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Opened:

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Putin warns NATO will be ‘at war with Russia’ if it allows Ukraine to use Western long-range missiles against it

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Putin Ally Accuses NATO of Leading Ukrainian Military in Russia

Newsweek•Sep 13, 2024

Putin says NATO will be "in the war" if U.S. or allies let Ukraine fire long-range missiles at Russia

CBS•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

18%