Group

Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025?

59 comments59

Forecast Timeline

Israel

Contested

Hamas

Shared Power

Palestinian Authority / Fatah

International Government

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
Israel	60%

Contested	35%

Hamas	3%

Shared Power	2%

Palestinian Authority / Fatah	1%

International Government	1%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Coalition Provisional Authority

Iraqi Governing Council

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

18%

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?

29%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Coalition Provisional Authority

Iraqi Governing Council

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

Spiking West Bank violence adds another front to Israel's collection of conflicts

USA Today•Sep 12, 2024

Israel’s prime target: the hunt for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

Guardian•Sep 18, 2024

Israeli Leaders Consider Total Siege of Northern Gaza, With Implications for 'Day After'

Washington Free Beacon•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

18%

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?

29%