Question

Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?

Resolved :No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

40.3

Community Peer Score

30.0

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Concerns Grow as Conflict Escalates Between Israel and Hezbollah

Time•Sep 20, 2024

What to know about the growing conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah

Associated Press•Sep 21, 2024

Israel Strikes Hezbollah In Lebanon Again As Death Toll Hits 37

Forbes•Sep 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%