Question

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

Resolved :Yes

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Community Prediction90%

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community: 90%

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25.9

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Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-15

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

12%

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obgzqpna

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Trump’s D.C. trial may not begin until 2026 or later, legal experts say

Washington Post•Sep 13, 2024

2nd Circuit rejects Donald Trump’s request to halt postconviction proceedings in hush money case

Associated Press•Sep 13, 2024

NY appeals court denies Trump request to pause Bragg case, after judge moves sentencing until after election

FOX News•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-15

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

12%