Question

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction2025-01-09

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2029-06-13

...

2024-09-18 19:46

2025-01-09 21:59

2025-06-11 18:03

1.5%

Authors:

Lawrence

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Business of AI

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

China

List of companies of China

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

2024-07-03

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5

Comments

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Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

China

List of companies of China

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When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

2024-07-03

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5