Question

On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters183

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.7

Community Peer Score

13.7

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Is a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine on the cards? I am sceptical | Rajan Menon

Guardian•Sep 17, 2024

Putin Aiming for Victory in Ukraine by 2026: Defense Experts

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

Russia begins efforts to expel Ukraine from Kursk but counter-attack is yet to gain momentum

CNN•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch