Question

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction47%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 47%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

72%

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

3.73

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Waymo and Uber expand their robotaxi partnership to Austin and Atlanta

Verge•Sep 13, 2024

Elon Musk is on track to become the world’s first trillionaire very soon

CNN•Sep 17, 2024

Waymo and Tesla have opposite problems as they compete for driverless tech dominance

Business Insider•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

72%

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

3.73

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

60%