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if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Forecast Timeline

over 100

over 1,000

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Candidates		My Prediction		Me
over 100	39%

over 1,000	14%

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casens

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

25%

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

25%

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

10%