Question

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction83%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 83%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

88%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

27%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery

Time•Sep 12, 2024

OpenAI releases o1, its first model with ‘reasoning’ abilities

Verge•Sep 13, 2024

OpenAI takes another step closer to getting AI to think like humans with new 'o1' model

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

88%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

27%