Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction193

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

1.329

193.3

125k

18.8%

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9.1e-2

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Aerospace engineering

Physics

Dyson sphere

Science fiction

Europa Clipper, NASA’s Mission to Jupiter’s Oceanic Moon, Is ‘Go’ for Launch

Scientific American•Sep 12, 2024

Astronauts Orbital Flight Demo Marks A Giant Leap Toward Mars Missions

Forbes•Sep 13, 2024

Voyager 1 survives clogged thruster issue billions of miles away

CNN•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9.1e-2

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%