Question

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction2064-08-30

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-30

...

2033-06-16 00:53

2064-08-30 19:17

2199-12-30 00:00

25.2%

Authors:

marius.hobbhahn

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Nobel Prize

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

62%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

2026-06-26

When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI)?

2025-12-29

Comments

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Authors:

marius.hobbhahn

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Nobel Prize

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

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Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

62%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

2026-06-26

When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI)?

2025-12-29