Question

By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

Resolved :Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction78%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 78%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-46.1

Community Peer Score

-5.9

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Nuclear Posture Review

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

93%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Nuclear Posture Review

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Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

93%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%