Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction72%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 72%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Biden’s Legacy: the Decline of Arms Control and Disarmament

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%