Question

When will the Taliban take Kabul?

Resolved :Aug 15, 2021

39 comments39

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction2021-08-16

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2022-12-30

...

2021-08-14 01:31

2021-08-16 15:58

2021-08-21 01:36

0.2%

What was the final result?Aug 15, 2021

Community Baseline Score

6.2

Community Peer Score

2.1

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

Arg (Kabul)

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%