Question

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction53.5

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

42.56

53.5

63.71

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Our World in Data

China

How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

14.8

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.36

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Our World in Data

China

Official US Poverty Rate Declined in 2023, But More People Faced Economic Hardship

CounterPunch•Sep 13, 2024

Democracy declined for 8th straight year around the globe, institute finds

Associated Press•Sep 17, 2024

Democracy declined for 8th straight year around the globe, institute finds

Independent•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

14.8

What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?

7.36