Question

How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction9.1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100

...

5.365

9.104

15.22

0.2%

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human mission to Mars

SpaceX reusable launch system

NASA

Colonization of Mars

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

2042-12-17

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

When will China first successfully land people on Mars?

2047-09-22

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human mission to Mars

SpaceX reusable launch system

NASA

Colonization of Mars

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SpaceX's Polaris Dawn crew returns to Earth victorious, making huge gains in Elon Musk's plans to send humans to Mars

Business Insider•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

2042-12-17

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

When will China first successfully land people on Mars?

2047-09-22