Question

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75.1%

median 75.1%mean 75.1%

Authors:

mdickens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Comments

? comments

Authors:

mdickens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

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What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43