Question

What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction96.1

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500

...

21.71

96.14

245.3

5.1%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

Scientists Will Engineer the Ocean to Absorb More Carbon Dioxide

Scientific American•Sep 12, 2024

Labor’s new ‘renewable hydrogen’ targets aim for Australia to produce 15m tonnes by 2050

Guardian•Sep 13, 2024

U.K. to Fund ‘Small-Scale’ Outdoor Geoengineering Tests

New York Times•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%