Question

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?

Resolved :No

42 comments42

Total Forecasters179

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

32.8

Community Peer Score

33.8

Authors:

RyanBeck NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Six-Day War

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

2006 Palestinian legislative election

Fatah–Hamas conflict

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?

29%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

92%

Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Six-Day War

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

2006 Palestinian legislative election

Fatah–Hamas conflict

Israel offers safe harbor for Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar in exchange for remaining hostages: official

New York Post•Sep 12, 2024

Hamas leader sends letters from hiding after almost a year of silence

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Israel’s prime target: the hunt for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

Guardian•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?

29%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

92%